Document (#26220)

Author

Körkel, T.

Title

Internet für Hörer aller Fakultäten

Source

Spektrum der Wissenschaft. 2002, H.12, S.114

Year

2002

Abstract

"Mit achtzigprozentiger Wahrscheinlichkeit wurde O. J. Simpsons Frau von ihrem Mann ermordet, und der Beschuss der chinesischen Botschaft im Kosovo-Krieg beruhte höchstwahrscheinlich, nämlich zu 85 Prozent, auf Vorsatz. Reine Vermutungen, geschätzt nach Pi mal Daumen? Nein, solche Wahrscheinlichkeiten lassen sich rechnerisch herleiten. Da nützt es nichts, dass Simpsons Anwalt vor Gericht zutreffend anführt, dass nur einer von tausend Männern, die ihre Frau regelmäßig schlagen, sie auch ermordet. Entscheidend ist die Frage, bei wie vielen ermordeten Frauen, die regelmäßig von ihrem Mann geschlagen wurden, der Mann auch der Täter war. Und im Falle der chinesischen Botschaft bleibt nur wenig Raum für vage Mutmaßungen, wenn man alle Faktoren veranschlagt - wie die Zahl aller Häuser in Belgrad, die Zahl der für einen Beschuss in Frage kommenden Ziele, die Zahl der Geschosse sowie die Vorab-Einschätzung des Vermutenden über die Bereitschaft der Amerikaner, die Botschaft zu beschießen. Mit zahlreichen Fallbeispielen beschreiben die Autoren, beide Physiker und Professoren am Fachbereich Medizin der Universität Hamburg, verblüffende Folgerungen aus der Wahrscheinlichkeitslogik. Die vertraute Wenn-dann-Logik ist auf viele Sachverhalte nicht anwendbar. Erst dadurch, dass ein "wahrscheinlich" in die Rechnung einbezogen wird, kann man alle Faktoren ins Kalkül ziehen - und bekommt daraufhin völlig andere Ergebnisse. Welche Irrtümer und Fehlschlüsse entstehen können, wenn nur einige dieser Zutaten außer Acht bleiben, zeigen die Autoren für die verschiedensten Lebensbereiche. Stück für Stück widerlegen sie unsere für sicher geglaubten Meinungen. In witzigen und spannenden Geschichten führen sie uns von Wettervorhersagen und Bilanzmanipulationen über Börsenbewegungen bis hin zu ihrem Hauptanliegen: der "Lebenslüge der medizinischen Forschung". Es geht um Fehlschlüsse, die durch falsche Interpretationen medizinischer Tests und Studien entstehen. Üblicherweise werden in Doppelblindversuchen Therapien an Patienten getestet und die jeweils positive oder negative Wirkung erfasst. Bei der statistischen Auswertung einer solchen Studie gestehen sich die Forscher sogar eine geringe Irrtumswahrscheinlichkeit zu. Eine Grundfrage aber fehlt: Wurde überhaupt eine bessere Therapie-Idee untersucht?
Das Buch verdeutlicht das mit einem Angelbeispiel: In einem Teich gibt es zwei Arten Fische, die begehrten Leckerellen und die ungenießbaren Ekelitzen. Um die Wirksamkeit eines Angelköders für Leckerellen zu testen, hängt man ihn ins Wasser und zählt, wie viele Fische jeder Art anbeißen. Weiß man dann, ob und wie sehr die Leckerellen den Köder mögen? Beileibe nicht. Es kommt darauf an, wie viele Fische der einen und der anderen Art überhaupt im Teich sind. Möglicherweise schwimmt dort gerade keine einzige Leckerelle, also beißt auch keine an; man angelte dann nur Ekelitzen, die den - vielleicht für Leckerellen hervorragenden - Köder nur in der Not fressen. Welchen Wert hat also die reine Zählmethode, um eine Aussage über die Qualität des Köders zu bekommen? Auf medizinische Studien übertragen: Wie aussagefähig ist ein Studienergebnis, wenn Therapie-Köder ausgelegt werden, ohne zu wissen, wie viele IdeenFische überhaupt im Forschungsmilieu schwimmen? Eine weitere Schwierigkeit kommt hinzu: Die Wahrscheinlichkeit von guten Ideen für neue Therapien ist nicht bekannt. Man könnte sie höchstens subjektiv schätzen (Vorschlag der Autoren: zwei Prozent). Weil sie also fast nicht quantifizierbar ist, darf sie, so argumentieren die Statistiker, bei der Bewertung wissenschaftlicher Ergebnisse auch nicht veranschlagt werden. Denn Subjektivität soll in der Forschung möglichst ausgeschlossen bleiben. Folglich wird der Faktor IdeenWahrscheinlichkeit ganz aus der Fragestellung und der statistischen Auswertung ausgeklammert. Das Problem existiert also offiziell gar nicht, obwohl es den Fachleuten bekannt ist. Das Buch bietet vergnüglichen Lesestoff als Verpackung für wissenschaftskritischen Zündstoff: Die Autoren weisen nach, dass randomisierte Studien überflüssig oder sogar schädlich sind. Sie zeigen, dass viele der "wissenschaftlich nachgewiesen besseren Therapien" nicht besser und vielfach sogar schlechter sind als das, was sie verbessern sollen. Alles, was man wissen muss: Ein texanischer Universitätsrechner gewährt Zutritt zu den heiligen Hallen der Online-Bildung. Der Online-Boom der 1990er Jahre beförderte auch akademische Bildungsinhalte ins Netz. Das große Projekt einer virtuellen Universität hat sich zwar bislang in finanziellen, technischen und konzeptionellen Unzulänglichkeiten verfangen. Aber die (reale) Universität von Texas in Austin bietet seit 1994 einen Wegweiser zu Online-Vorlesungen aus aller Welt, den sie ständig aktualisiert: den "Welthörsaal" (http:// wnt.cc.utexas.edu/~wlh). In über neunzig natur- und geisteswissenschaftlichen Fächern, von Astronomie über Anthropologie, Geschichte und Religion bis hin zur Zoologie, können Internet-Surfer weit reichende Studien treiben. Ausdauer ist gefragt: So mancher Mausklick fördert nicht viel mehr als Vorlesungspläne zu Tage oder fordert kostenpflichtige Registrierungen. Häufig dienen die Seiten auch nur als Ergänzung zu einer Präsenzvorlesung. Wer trotzdem dranbleibt, den belohnt die Suchmaschine der World Lecture Hall mit faszinierenden Links auf umfassende Text- und Bildersammlungen, abgerundet mit Filmen, Sprachsequenzen und interaktiven Anwendungen. Eine Online-Einführung in die Chemie bietet zum Beispiel www.scidiv.bcc.ctc.edu/ wv/101-online.html. Fachlich anspruchsvoll und dennoch verständlich ist auch http://simons.hec.utah.edu/ TheoryPage/index.html: Jack Simons, theoretischer Chemiker aus Utah, leitet die rasant wachsende Bedeutung seines Fachgebiets aus dessen Funktion als Schnittstelle zwischen Chemie, Mathematik, Physik und Computerwissenschaften ab. Bunt und bewegt geht es in der "Chemist's Art Gallery" (www.csc.fi/them/gallery.phtml) zu, die auch die Links zur Molekül-"Kunst" auf dieser Seite lieferte. Ein reiches Sortiment interaktiver Animationen etwa zur Molekulardynamik stellt einige Ansprüche an die heimische Hardware.
Ähnlich spektakulär und informativ präsentieren sich auch die Astronomen: Ihr schier unerschöpflicher Fundus von Bildern und Filmen macht das "elektronische Universum" auf http://zebu.uoregon.edu ebenso einen Klick wert wie die Geschichte von "Geburt und Tod der Sterne" auf demselben Server (http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~js/astl22). Schnell gerät der Wissensdurstige auf reizvolle Seitenpfade, denn viele Vorlesungen glänzen mit sorgfältig zusammengestellten Linklisten. Die führen zum Beispiel zu den "Chemischen Briefen" Justus von Liebigs, wie sie im 19. Jahrhundert zunächst als Wissenschaftskolumne in der Augsburger Allgemeinen Zeitung erschienen (www.liebig-museum.de/chbriefe/homepage.htm). Selbst die Alchemie - neunzig ansprechend präsentierte Megabyte auf www.alchemywebsite. com - verleitet zum Verweilen. Historisches ist, weil nicht stets aktualisierungsbedürftig, ohnehin beliebt im Netz. So wartet etwa die Universität Groningen (Niederlande) mit einem voluminösen Hypertext auf, praktisch ein komplettes Lehrbuch der amerikanischen Geschichte mit Texten, Essays und Präsidentenbiografien (http://odur.let.rug.nl/usanew). Noch weiter zurück in die Vergangenheit reicht eine Anthropologen-Website über den Ursprung des Menschen (www.geocities.com/Athens/Acropolis/5579/TA.html). Verspieltere Naturen werden dort zuerst fossile Schädel zuzuordnen versuchen ("Name That Skull") oder einem Anthropologiestudenten beim Wurf des Atlatl zusehen. Dieser frühe Wurfspeer machte schon den Mammuts zu schaffen und drang noch vor wenigen hundert Jahren durch die eiserne Rüstung spanischer Konquistadoren. Selbst Angewandtes bietet die World Lecture Hall. Etwa die "Geschichte der ökonomischen Denkweise" einschließlich eines 22-Minuten-"Interviews" mit Karl Marx auf www.boisestate.edu/econ/lreynol/web/het.htm. Oder Online-Sprachkurse: Wollof und Xhosa, Suaheli und Sanskrit lehrt http://www.word2word.vorn/courscad.html. Surfen allein fördert die akademische Karriere allerdings nicht unbedingt. Wer of fizielle Online-Zertifikate in Deutschland anstrebt, findet in dem Beitrag "Virtuelle Universität im Selbstversuch" (Spektrum der Wissenschaft 11/ 2001, S. 109) gute Startpunkte für das Studieren im Netz, angefangen bei - na wo wohl? - www.studieren-irre-netz.de."

Theme

Internet
Informationsmittel
Computer Based Training

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3. Siemes, V.: Mittelstand muss die Scheu vorm Internet überwinden : Neue Medien schaffen neue, ungewohnte Berufe und verlangen von Unternehmen und Mitarbeitern neues Denken (2001) 0.25

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4. Jörn, F.: Wie Google für uns nach der ominösen Gluonenkraft stöbert : Software-Krabbler machen sich vor der Anfrage auf die Suche - Das Netz ist etwa fünfhundertmal größer als alles Durchforschte (2001) 0.23

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5. Ramm, T.: ¬Der Computer ersetzt den Lesesaal : Die Wissenschaftspublikation im digitalen Zeitalter - Verleger und Bibliothekare müssen künftig Informationsvermeidung betreiben (2001) 0.23

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