Document (#41311)

Author
Seefried, E.
Title
¬Die Gestaltbarkeit der Zukunft und ihre Grenzen : zur Geschichte der Zukunftsforschung
Source
Zeitschrift für Zukunftsforschung. 4 (2015) H.1, S.5-31
Year
2015
Abstract
Dieser Beitrag beleuchtet die Geschichte der Zukunftsforschung in der Bundesrepublik und in den westlichen Industriegesellschaften vom 19. Jahrhundert bis in die Gegenwart. Er charakterisiert die Vorläufer der modernen Zukunftsforschung am Beginn der europäischen "Hochmoderne" um 1900, stellt aber die Formierungs- und Transformationsphase der 1950er- bis frühen 1980er-Jahre in den Mittelpunkt. Zentrale Faktoren für die Konzeptionierung einer Meta-Disziplin Zukunftsforschung waren der Systemwettlauf des Kalten Krieges, welcher der Entwicklung von Methoden der Vorausschau und Planung Dynamik verlieh, und ein teilweise frappantes wissenschaftliches Vertrauen in diese neuen methodisch-theoretischen Zugänge und Techniken der Vorausschau - insbesondere die Kybernetik -, welche die Zukunft prognostizierbar und damit plan- und steuerbar zu machen schienen. Den Kontext bildeten eine gesellschaftliche Aufbruchstimmung und eine hohe politische Technik- und Planungsaffinität der 1960er-Jahre, welche das Verständnis der Zukunftsforschung bestärkten, dass der Mensch aus der Fülle der möglichen Zukünfte wählen und so die Zukunft geradezu frei gestalten könne. Dieses überzogene Machbarkeitsdenken betraf insbesondere die bundesdeutsche Zukunftsforschung. In den 1970er-Jahren wurden allerdings die Grenzen dieses Anspruchs deutlich. In der Folge pragmatisierte sich die Zukunftsforschung in methodischer Hinsicht. Nicht zuletzt trug dieser übersteigerte Machbarkeitsglaube der 1960er-Jahre dazu bei, dass die Zukunftsforschung in der Bundesrepublik lange wenig institutionalisiert war.
Content
Vgl.: http://www.zeitschrift-zukunftsforschung.de/ausgaben/2015/ausgabe-1/4264.
Theme
Vision

Similar documents (content)

  1. Korves, J.: Seiten bewerten : Googles PageRank (2005) 0.10
    0.102894805 = sum of:
      0.102894805 = product of:
        0.36748144 = sum of:
          0.026572704 = weight(abstract_txt:dass in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.026572704 = score(doc=1989,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.088250816 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0196506 = boost
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.30110434 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.0827196 = weight(abstract_txt:vorläufer in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.0827196 = score(doc=1989,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.1881484 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0527549 = boost
                9.379218 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.43965083 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                9.379218 = idf(docFreq=9, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.023293775 = weight(abstract_txt:dieses in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.023293775 = score(doc=1989,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.10184307 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0953622 = boost
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.22872224 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.042833384 = weight(abstract_txt:welche in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.042833384 = score(doc=1989,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.12132487 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.1955477 = boost
                5.325695 = idf(docFreq=575, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.35304704 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                5.325695 = idf(docFreq=575, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.0352915 = weight(abstract_txt:insbesondere in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.0352915 = score(doc=1989,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.13434401 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.2580594 = boost
                5.6041603 = idf(docFreq=435, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.262695 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.6041603 = idf(docFreq=435, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.09727216 = weight(abstract_txt:jahre in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.09727216 = score(doc=1989,freq=3.0), product of:
              0.20961414 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9246329 = boost
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.4640534 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.7320508 = tf(freq=3.0), with freq of:
                  3.0 = termFreq=3.0
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
          0.059498306 = weight(abstract_txt:zukunft in 1989) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.059498306 = score(doc=1989,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.21784037 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9620353 = boost
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.273128 = fieldWeight in 1989, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.046875 = fieldNorm(doc=1989)
        0.28 = coord(7/25)
    
  2. Informationspolitik ist machbar!? : Reflexionen zum luD-Programm 1974-1911 nach 30 Jahren (2005) 0.10
    0.10129562 = sum of:
      0.10129562 = product of:
        0.42206508 = sum of:
          0.086488076 = weight(abstract_txt:westlichen in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.086488076 = score(doc=378,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.17489116 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0149881 = boost
                9.042746 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.49452513 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                9.042746 = idf(docFreq=13, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
          0.021921363 = weight(abstract_txt:dass in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.021921363 = score(doc=378,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.088250816 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0196506 = boost
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.24839841 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
          0.038432766 = weight(abstract_txt:dieses in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.038432766 = score(doc=378,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.10184307 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0953622 = boost
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.37737244 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
          0.11314877 = weight(abstract_txt:bundesdeutsche in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.11314877 = score(doc=378,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.20920092 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.1100916 = boost
                9.890043 = idf(docFreq=5, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.5408617 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                9.890043 = idf(docFreq=5, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
          0.09265944 = weight(abstract_txt:jahre in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.09265944 = score(doc=378,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.20961414 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9246329 = boost
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.4420477 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
          0.06941469 = weight(abstract_txt:zukunft in 378) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.06941469 = score(doc=378,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.21784037 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9620353 = boost
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.31864935 = fieldWeight in 378, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0546875 = fieldNorm(doc=378)
        0.24 = coord(6/25)
    
  3. Seeger, T.: (Fach-)Informationspolitik in Deutschland (Bundesrepublik Deutschland) (2004) 0.09
    0.094285235 = sum of:
      0.094285235 = product of:
        0.78571033 = sum of:
          0.054903954 = weight(abstract_txt:dieses in 3901) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.054903954 = score(doc=3901,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.10184307 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0953622 = boost
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.5391035 = fieldWeight in 3901, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.078125 = fieldNorm(doc=3901)
          0.63720626 = weight(title_txt:bundesrepublik in 3901) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.63720626 = score(doc=3901,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.23115233 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.6502173 = boost
                7.3510695 = idf(docFreq=75, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              2.756651 = fieldWeight in 3901, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                7.3510695 = idf(docFreq=75, maxDocs=43556)
                0.375 = fieldNorm(doc=3901)
          0.093600184 = weight(abstract_txt:jahre in 3901) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.093600184 = score(doc=3901,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.20961414 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9246329 = boost
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.44653562 = fieldWeight in 3901, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.078125 = fieldNorm(doc=3901)
        0.12 = coord(3/25)
    
  4. Yogeshwar, R.: Nächste Ausfahrt Zukunft : Geschichten aus einer Welt im Wandel (2017) 0.06
    0.062137444 = sum of:
      0.062137444 = product of:
        0.3106872 = sum of:
          0.025052985 = weight(abstract_txt:dass in 343) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.025052985 = score(doc=343,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.088250816 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0196506 = boost
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.2838839 = fieldWeight in 343, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                4.5421424 = idf(docFreq=1260, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=343)
          0.031058365 = weight(abstract_txt:dieses in 343) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.031058365 = score(doc=343,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.10184307 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0953622 = boost
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.304963 = fieldWeight in 343, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=343)
          0.067504644 = weight(abstract_txt:geschichte in 343) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.067504644 = score(doc=343,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.17088403 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.4188704 = boost
                6.3205104 = idf(docFreq=212, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.3950319 = fieldWeight in 343, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                6.3205104 = idf(docFreq=212, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=343)
          0.074880145 = weight(abstract_txt:jahre in 343) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.074880145 = score(doc=343,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.20961414 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9246329 = boost
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.3572285 = fieldWeight in 343, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.715656 = idf(docFreq=389, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=343)
          0.11219107 = weight(abstract_txt:zukunft in 343) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.11219107 = score(doc=343,freq=2.0), product of:
              0.21784037 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9620353 = boost
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.51501507 = fieldWeight in 343, product of:
                1.4142135 = tf(freq=2.0), with freq of:
                  2.0 = termFreq=2.0
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.0625 = fieldNorm(doc=343)
        0.2 = coord(5/25)
    
  5. Sorgner, S.L.: Transhumanismus - "die gefährlichste Idee der Welt"!? (2016) 0.06
    0.061117776 = sum of:
      0.061117776 = product of:
        0.3819861 = sum of:
          0.05435214 = weight(abstract_txt:dieses in 513) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.05435214 = score(doc=513,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.10184307 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.0953622 = boost
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.5336852 = fieldWeight in 513, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                4.879408 = idf(docFreq=899, maxDocs=43556)
                0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=513)
          0.07067148 = weight(abstract_txt:welche in 513) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.07067148 = score(doc=513,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.12132487 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.1955477 = boost
                5.325695 = idf(docFreq=575, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.5824979 = fieldWeight in 513, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.325695 = idf(docFreq=575, maxDocs=43556)
                0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=513)
          0.11813312 = weight(abstract_txt:geschichte in 513) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.11813312 = score(doc=513,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.17088403 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.4188704 = boost
                6.3205104 = idf(docFreq=212, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.6913058 = fieldWeight in 513, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                6.3205104 = idf(docFreq=212, maxDocs=43556)
                0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=513)
          0.13882938 = weight(abstract_txt:zukunft in 513) [ClassicSimilarity], result of:
            0.13882938 = score(doc=513,freq=1.0), product of:
              0.21784037 = queryWeight, product of:
                1.9620353 = boost
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.019054897 = queryNorm
              0.6372987 = fieldWeight in 513, product of:
                1.0 = tf(freq=1.0), with freq of:
                  1.0 = termFreq=1.0
                5.8267307 = idf(docFreq=348, maxDocs=43556)
                0.109375 = fieldNorm(doc=513)
        0.16 = coord(4/25)