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Abstract

Results in the literature concerning the probability that an author publishes r articles in time t are reexamined, and it is found that a negative binomial distribution bits scientific productivity data (by the chi-squared goodness-of-fit-test) better than many other distribution such as geometric, logarithmic, zeta, cumulative advantage, etc. It is shown analytically that the nagative binomial distribution describes a pattern of scientific productivity under the 'success-breeds-success' condition in a wide variety of social circumstances