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Abstract

This paper proposes a diffusion model to measure the evolution of stakeholders' disaster perceptions by integrating a disaster message model, a stakeholder model, and a stakeholder memory model, which collectively describe the process of information flow. Simulation results show that the rate of forgetting has a significantly negative effect on stakeholders' perceptions and the incremental increase in the number of affected individuals has a positive effect on the maximum level of stakeholders' perceptions, but negative effect on the duration of stakeholders' perceptions. Additionally, a delay effect, a stagnation effect, and a cumulative effect exist in the evolution of stakeholders' perceptions. There is a spike at the beginning of the profile of stakeholders' perceptions in the Damped Exponential Model. An empirical test supports the validity of this model of stakeholders' disaster perceptions.

Date

22. 1.2016 14:16:13