Search (11 results, page 1 of 1)

  • × author_ss:"Burrell, Q.L."
  • × year_i:[2000 TO 2010}
  1. Burrell, Q.L.: Predicting future citation behavior (2003) 0.02 
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    Abstract
    In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we investigate the conditional distribution-and its mean- of the number of citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, this being interpretable as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon.
    Date
    29. 3.2003 19:22:48
    Type
    a
  2. Mingers, J.; Burrell, Q.L.: Modeling citation behavior in Management Science journals (2006) 0.02 
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    Abstract
    Citation rates are becoming increasingly important in judging the research quality of journals, institutions and departments, and individual faculty. This paper looks at the pattern of citations across different management science journals and over time. A stochastic model is proposed which views the generating mechanism of citations as a gamma mixture of Poisson processes generating overall a negative binomial distribution. This is tested empirically with a large sample of papers published in 1990 from six management science journals and found to fit well. The model is extended to include obsolescence, i.e., that the citation rate for a paper varies over its cited lifetime. This leads to the additional citations distribution which shows that future citations are a linear function of past citations with a time-dependent and decreasing slope. This is also verified empirically in a way that allows different obsolescence functions to be fitted to the data. Conclusions concerning the predictability of future citations, and future research in this area are discussed.
    Date
    26.12.2007 19:22:05
    Type
    a
  3. Burrell, Q.L.: "Ambiguity" ans scientometric measurement : a dissenting view (2001) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    Abe Bookstein has long been a persuasive advocate of the central role of the classical Lotka-Bradford-Zipf "laws" in bibliometrics and, subsequently, scientometrics and informetrics. In a series of often-quoted papers (Bookstein, 1977, 1990a, 1990b, 1997), he has sought to demonstrate that "Lotka-type" laws have a unique resilience to various forms of reporting, which leads inevitably and naturally to their observance in empirical informetric data collected under a wide variety of circumstances. A general statement of his position was featured in the recent JASIST Special Topic Issue on Information Science at the Millennium (Bookstein, 2001). We shall argue that there are grounds to dispute some of the logic, the mathematics, and the reality of the development. The contention is on the one hand that Bookstein's development lacks a rigorous mathematical basis, and on the other, that, in general, informetric processes are adequately described within a standard probabilistic framework with stochastic modelling offering the more productive approach.
    Type
    a
  4. Burrell, Q.L.: Fitting Lotka's law : some cautionary observations on a recent paper by Newby et al. (2003) (2004) 0.00 
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  5. Burrell, Q.L.: Measuring similarity of concentration between different informetric distributions : two new approaches (2005) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    From its earliest days, much investigative work in informetrics has been concerned with inequality aspects. Beginning with the weIl-known Gin! coefficient as a measure of the concentration/inequality of productivity within a single data set, in this study we look at the problem of measuring relative inequallty of productivity between two data sets. A measure originally proposed by Dagum (1987), analogous to the Gin! coefficient, is discussed and developed with both theoretical and empir!cal illustrations. From this we derive a standardized measure-the relative concentration coefficient-based an the notion of "relative economic affluence" also introduced by Dagum (1987). Finally, a new standardized measure-the co-concentration coefficient, in some ways analogous to the correlation coefficient-is defined. The merits and drawbacks of these two measures are discussed and illustrated. Their value will be most readily appreclated in comparative empirical studies.
    Type
    a
  6. Burrell, Q.L.: Will this paper ever be cited? (2002) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    A recently proposed stochastic model to describe the citation process in the presence of obsolescence is used to answer the question: If a paper has not been cited by time t after its publication, what is the probability that it will ever be cited?
    Type
    a
  7. Burrell, Q.L.: Some comments on "A proposal for a dynamic h-Type Index" by Rousseau and Ye (2009) 0.00 
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  8. Burrell, Q.L.: Egghe's construction of Lorenz curves resolved (2007) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    In a recent article (Burrell, 2006), the author pointed out that the version of Lorenz concentration theory presented by Egghe (2005a, 2005b) does not conform to the classical statistical/econometric approach. Rousseau (2007) asserts confusion on our part and a failure to grasp Egghe's construction, even though we simply reported what Egghe stated. Here the author shows that Egghe's construction rather than including the standard case, as claimed by Rousseau, actually leads to the Leimkuhler curve of the dual function, in the sense of Egghe. (Note that here we distinguish between the Lorenz curve, a convex form arising from ranking from smallest to largest, and the Leimkuhler curve, a concave form arising from ranking from largest to smallest. The two presentations are equivalent. See Burrell, 1991, 2005; Rousseau, 2007.)
    Type
    a
  9. Burrell, Q.L.: On Egghe's version of continuous concentration theory (2006) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    In a recent article, Egghe (2005) discussed what he terms Lorenz concentration theory, covering the Lorenz curve and concentration measures such as the coefficient of variation and the Theil and Gini coefficients. In this note, we point out that neither the curve construction nor the concentration measures conform to the standard statistical/econometric definitions. We here give the standard formulations and apply them to the (truncated) Pareto distributions that are the subject of Egghe's (2005) article. We also interpret Egghe's usage.
    Type
    a
  10. Burrell, Q.L.: Extending Lotkaian informetrics (2008) 0.00 
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    Abstract
    The continuous version of the Lotka distribution, more generally referred to outside of informetrics as the Pareto distribution, has long enjoyed a central position in the theoretical development of informetrics despite several reported drawbacks in modelling empirical data distributions, most particularly that the inverse power form seems mainly to be evident only in the upper tails. We give a number of published examples graphically illustrating this shortcoming. In seeking to overcome this, we here draw attention to an intuitively reasonable generalization of the Pareto distribution, namely the Pareto type II distribution, of which we consider two versions. We describe its basic properties and some statistical features together with concentration aspects and argue that, at least in qualitative terms, it is better able to describe many observed informetric phenomena over the full range of the distribution. Suggestions for further investigations, including truncated and time-dependent versions, are also given.
    Type
    a
  11. Burrell, Q.L.: "Type/Token-Taken" informetrics : Some comments and further examples (2003) 0.00 
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