Search (33 results, page 1 of 2)

  • × author_ss:"Jansen, B.J."
  1. Jansen, B.J.; Spink, A.: How are we searching the World Wide Web? : A comparison of nine search engine transaction logs (2006) 0.11
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    Abstract
    The Web and especially major Web search engines are essential tools in the quest to locate online information for many people. This paper reports results from research that examines characteristics and changes in Web searching from nine studies of five Web search engines based in the US and Europe. We compare interactions occurring between users and Web search engines from the perspectives of session length, query length, query complexity, and content viewed among the Web search engines. The results of our research shows (1) users are viewing fewer result pages, (2) searchers on US-based Web search engines use more query operators than searchers on European-based search engines, (3) there are statistically significant differences in the use of Boolean operators and result pages viewed, and (4) one cannot necessary apply results from studies of one particular Web search engine to another Web search engine. The wide spread use of Web search engines, employment of simple queries, and decreased viewing of result pages may have resulted from algorithmic enhancements by Web search engine companies. We discuss the implications of the findings for the development of Web search engines and design of online content.
  2. Spink, A.; Jansen, B.J.; Blakely, C.; Koshman, S.: ¬A study of results overlap and uniqueness among major Web search engines (2006) 0.08
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    Abstract
    The performance and capabilities of Web search engines is an important and significant area of research. Millions of people world wide use Web search engines very day. This paper reports the results of a major study examining the overlap among results retrieved by multiple Web search engines for a large set of more than 10,000 queries. Previous smaller studies have discussed a lack of overlap in results returned by Web search engines for the same queries. The goal of the current study was to conduct a large-scale study to measure the overlap of search results on the first result page (both non-sponsored and sponsored) across the four most popular Web search engines, at specific points in time using a large number of queries. The Web search engines included in the study were MSN Search, Google, Yahoo! and Ask Jeeves. Our study then compares these results with the first page results retrieved for the same queries by the metasearch engine Dogpile.com. Two sets of randomly selected user-entered queries, one set was 10,316 queries and the other 12,570 queries, from Infospace's Dogpile.com search engine (the first set was from Dogpile, the second was from across the Infospace Network of search properties were submitted to the four single Web search engines). Findings show that the percent of total results unique to only one of the four Web search engines was 84.9%, shared by two of the three Web search engines was 11.4%, shared by three of the Web search engines was 2.6%, and shared by all four Web search engines was 1.1%. This small degree of overlap shows the significant difference in the way major Web search engines retrieve and rank results in response to given queries. Results point to the value of metasearch engines in Web retrieval to overcome the biases of individual search engines.
  3. Jansen, B.J.: Searching for digital images on the web (2008) 0.05
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    Abstract
    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the way in which end user searching on the web has become the primary method of locating digital images for many people. This paper seeks to investigate how users structure these image queries. Design/methodology/approach - This study investigates the structure and formation of image queries on the web by mapping a sample of web queries to three known query classification schemes for image searching (i.e. Enser and McGregor, Jörgensen, and Chen). Findings - The results indicate that the features and attributes of web image queries differ relative to image queries utilized on other information retrieval systems and by other user populations. This research points to the need for five additional attributes (i.e. collections, pornography, presentation, URL, and cost) in order to classify web image queries, which were not present in any of the three prior classification schemes. Research limitations/implications - Patterns in web searching for image content do emerge that inform the design of web-based multimedia systems, namely, that there is a high interest in locating image collections by web searchers. Objects and people images are the predominant interest for web searchers. Cost is a factor for web searching. This knowledge of the structure of web image queries has implications for the design of image information retrieval systems and repositories, especially in the area of automatic tagging of images with metadata. Originality/value - This is the first research that examines whether or not one can apply image query classifications schemes to web image queries.
  4. Spink, A.; Jansen, B.J.; Pedersen , J.: Searching for people on Web search engines (2004) 0.04
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    Abstract
    The Web is a communication and information technology that is often used for the distribution and retrieval of personal information. Many people and organizations mount Web sites containing large amounts of information on individuals, particularly about celebrities. However, limited studies have examined how people search for information on other people, using personal names, via Web search engines. Explores the nature of personal name searching on Web search engines. The specific research questions addressed in the study are: "Do personal names form a major part of queries to Web search engines?"; "What are the characteristics of personal name Web searching?"; and "How effective is personal name Web searching?". Random samples of queries from two Web search engines were analyzed. The findings show that: personal name searching is a common but not a major part of Web searching with few people seeking information on celebrities via Web search engines; few personal name queries include double quotations or additional identifying terms; and name searches on Alta Vista included more advanced search features relative to those on AlltheWeb.com. Discusses the implications of the findings for Web searching and search engines, and further research.
  5. Zhang, Y.; Jansen, B.J.; Spink, A.: Identification of factors predicting clickthrough in Web searching using neural network analysis (2009) 0.04
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    Abstract
    In this research, we aim to identify factors that significantly affect the clickthrough of Web searchers. Our underlying goal is determine more efficient methods to optimize the clickthrough rate. We devise a clickthrough metric for measuring customer satisfaction of search engine results using the number of links visited, number of queries a user submits, and rank of clicked links. We use a neural network to detect the significant influence of searching characteristics on future user clickthrough. Our results show that high occurrences of query reformulation, lengthy searching duration, longer query length, and the higher ranking of prior clicked links correlate positively with future clickthrough. We provide recommendations for leveraging these findings for improving the performance of search engine retrieval and result ranking, along with implications for search engine marketing.
    Date
    22. 3.2009 17:49:11
  6. Jansen, B.J.; Spink, A.; Pedersen, J.: ¬A temporal comparison of AItaVista Web searching (2005) 0.04
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    Abstract
    Major Web search engines, such as AItaVista, are essential tools in the quest to locate online information. This article reports research that used transaction log analysis to examine the characteristics and changes in AItaVista Web searching that occurred from 1998 to 2002. The research questions we examined are (1) What are the changes in AItaVista Web searching from 1998 to 2002? (2) What are the current characteristics of AItaVista searching, including the duration and frequency of search sessions? (3) What changes in the information needs of AItaVista users occurred between 1998 and 2002? The results of our research show (1) a move toward more interactivity with increases in session and query length, (2) with 70% of session durations at 5 minutes or less, the frequency of interaction is increasing, but it is happening very quickly, and (3) a broadening range of Web searchers' information needs, with the most frequent terms accounting for less than 1% of total term usage. We discuss the implications of these findings for the development of Web search engines.
  7. Jansen, B.J.; Spink, A.: ¬An analysis of Web searching by European Allthe Web.com users (2005) 0.04
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    Abstract
    The Web has become a worldwide source of information and a mainstream business tool. It is changing the way people conduct the daily business of their lives. As these changes are occurring, we need to understand what Web searching trends are emerging within the various global regions. What are the regional differences and trends in Web searching, if any? What is the effectiveness of Web search engines as providers of information? As part of a body of research studying these questions, we have analyzed two data sets collected from queries by mainly European users submitted to AlltheWeb.com on 6 February 2001 and 28 May 2002. AlltheWeb.com is a major and highly rated European search engine. Each data set contains approximately a million queries submitted by over 200,000 users and spans a 24-h period. This longitudinal benchmark study shows that European Web searching is evolving in certain directions. There was some decline in query length, with extremely simple queries. European search topics are broadening, with a notable percentage decline in sexual and pornographic searching. The majority of Web searchers view fewer than five Web documents, spending only seconds on a Web document. Approximately 50% of the Web documents viewed by these European users were topically relevant. We discuss the implications for Web information systems and information content providers.
  8. Spink, A.; Park, M.; Jansen, B.J.; Pedersen, J.: Elicitation and use of relevance feedback information (2006) 0.03
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    Abstract
    A user's single session with a Web search engine or information retrieval (IR) system may consist of seeking information on single or multiple topics, and switch between tasks or multitasking information behavior. Most Web search sessions consist of two queries of approximately two words. However, some Web search sessions consist of three or more queries. We present findings from two studies. First, a study of two-query search sessions on the AltaVista Web search engine, and second, a study of three or more query search sessions on the AltaVista Web search engine. We examine the degree of multitasking search and information task switching during these two sets of AltaVista Web search sessions. A sample of two-query and three or more query sessions were filtered from AltaVista transaction logs from 2002 and qualitatively analyzed. Sessions ranged in duration from less than a minute to a few hours. Findings include: (1) 81% of two-query sessions included multiple topics, (2) 91.3% of three or more query sessions included multiple topics, (3) there are a broad variety of topics in multitasking search sessions, and (4) three or more query sessions sometimes contained frequent topic changes. Multitasking is found to be a growing element in Web searching. This paper proposes an approach to interactive information retrieval (IR) contextually within a multitasking framework. The implications of our findings for Web design and further research are discussed.
  9. Jansen, B.J.; Molina, P.R.: ¬The effectiveness of Web search engines for retrieving relevant ecommerce links (2006) 0.03
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    Abstract
    Ecommerce is developing into a fast-growing channel for new business, so a strong presence in this domain could prove essential to the success of numerous commercial organizations. However, there is little research examining ecommerce at the individual customer level, particularly on the success of everyday ecommerce searches. This is critical for the continued success of online commerce. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of search engines in the retrieval of relevant ecommerce links. The study examines the effectiveness of five different types of search engines in response to ecommerce queries by comparing the engines' quality of ecommerce links using topical relevancy ratings. This research employs 100 ecommerce queries, five major search engines, and more than 3540 Web links. The findings indicate that links retrieved using an ecommerce search engine are significantly better than those obtained from most other engines types but do not significantly differ from links obtained from a Web directory service. We discuss the implications for Web system design and ecommerce marketing campaigns.
  10. Koshman, S.; Spink, A.; Jansen, B.J.: Web searching on the Vivisimo search engine (2006) 0.03
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    Abstract
    The application of clustering to Web search engine technology is a novel approach that offers structure to the information deluge often faced by Web searchers. Clustering methods have been well studied in research labs; however, real user searching with clustering systems in operational Web environments is not well understood. This article reports on results from a transaction log analysis of Vivisimo.com, which is a Web meta-search engine that dynamically clusters users' search results. A transaction log analysis was conducted on 2-week's worth of data collected from March 28 to April 4 and April 25 to May 2, 2004, representing 100% of site traffic during these periods and 2,029,734 queries overall. The results show that the highest percentage of queries contained two terms. The highest percentage of search sessions contained one query and was less than 1 minute in duration. Almost half of user interactions with clusters consisted of displaying a cluster's result set, and a small percentage of interactions showed cluster tree expansion. Findings show that 11.1% of search sessions were multitasking searches, and there are a broad variety of search topics in multitasking search sessions. Other searching interactions and statistics on repeat users of the search engine are reported. These results provide insights into search characteristics with a cluster-based Web search engine and extend research into Web searching trends.
  11. Spink, A.; Jansen, B.J.: Web searching : public searching of the Web (2004) 0.03
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    Footnote
    Den Autoren wurden von den kommerziellen Suchmaschinen AltaVista, Excite und All the Web größere Datenbestände zur Verfügung gestellt. Die ausgewerteten Files umfassten jeweils alle an die jeweilige Suchmaschine an einem bestimmten Tag gestellten Anfragen. Die Daten wurden zwischen 199'] und 2002 erhoben; allerdings liegen nicht von allen Jahren Daten von allen Suchmaschinen vor, so dass einige der festgestellten Unterschiede im Nutzerverhalten sich wohl auf die unterschiedlichen Nutzergruppen der einzelnen Suchmaschinen zurückführen lassen. In einem Fall werden die Nutzergruppen sogar explizit nach den Suchmaschinen getrennt, so dass das Nutzerverhalten der europäischen Nutzer der Suchmaschine All the Web mit dem Verhalten der US-amerikanischen Nutzer verglichen wird. Die Analyse der Logfiles erfolgt auf unterschiedlichen Ebenen: Es werden sowohl die eingegebenen Suchbegriffe, die kompletten Suchanfragen, die Such-Sessions und die Anzahl der angesehenen Ergebnisseiten ermittelt. Bei den Suchbegriffen ist besonders interessant, dass die Spannbreite der Informationsbedürfnisse im Lauf der Jahre deutlich zugenommen hat. Zwar werden 20 Prozent aller eingegebenen Suchbegriffe regelmäßig verwendet, zehn Prozent kamen hingegen nur ein einziges Mal vor. Die thematischen Interessen der Suchmaschinen-Nutzer haben sich im Lauf der letzten Jahre ebenfalls gewandelt. Während in den Anfangsjahren viele Anfragen aus den beiden Themenfeldern Sex und Technologie stammten, gehen diese mittlerweile zurück. Dafür nehmen Anfragen im Bereich E-Commerce zu. Weiterhin zugenommen haben nicht-englischsprachige Begriffe sowie Zahlen und Akronyme. Die Popularität von Suchbegriffen ist auch saisonabhängig und wird durch aktuelle Nachrichten beeinflusst. Auf der Ebene der Suchanfragen zeigt sich weiterhin die vielfach belegte Tatsache, dass Suchanfragen in Web-Suchmaschinen extrem kurz sind. Die durchschnittliche Suchanfrage enthält je nach Suchmaschine zwischen 2,3 und 2,9 Terme. Dies deckt sich mit anderen Untersuchungen zu diesem Thema. Die Länge der Suchanfragen ist in den letzten Jahren leicht steigend; größere Sprünge hin zu längeren Anfragen sind jedoch nicht zu erwarten. Ebenso verhält es sich mit dem Einsatz von Operatoren: Nur etwa in jeder zehnten Anfrage kommen diese vor, wobei die Phrasensuche am häufigsten verwendet wird. Dass die SuchmaschinenNutzer noch weitgehend als Anfänger angesehen werden müssen, zeigt sich auch daran, dass sie pro Suchanfrage nur drei oder vier Dokumente aus der Trefferliste tatsächlich sichten.
    Der relativ hohe Wert von 17 Prozent stammt allerdings aus dem Jahr 1997; seitdem ist eine deutliche Abnahme zu verzeichnen. Betont werden muss außerdem, dass Anfragen nach sexuellen Inhalten nicht mit denen nach Pornographie gleichzusetzen sind. Die Suche nach Multimedia-Inhalten hat sich von den allgemeinen Suchinterfaces der Suchmaschinen hin zu speziellen Suchmasken verschoben, die inzwischen von allen großen Suchmaschinen angeboten werden. Die wichtigste Aussage aus den untersuchten Daten lautet, dass die Suche nach Multimedia-Inhalten komplexer und vor allem interaktiver ist als die übliche Websuche. Die Anfragen sind länger und enthalten zu einem deutlich größeren Teil Operatoren. Bei der Bildersuche stellen weiterhin sexuell orientierte Anfragen den höchsten Anteil. Bei der Bilderund Video-Suche sind die Anfragen deutlich länger als bei der regulären Suche; bei der Audio-Suche sind sie dagegen kürzer. Das vorliegende Werk bietet die bisher umfassendste Analyse des Nutzerverhaltens bezüglich der Web-Suche; insbesondere wurden bisher keine umfassenden, auf längere Zeiträume angelegten Studien vorgelegt, deren Ergebnisse wie im vorliegenden Fall direkt vergleichbar sind. Die Ergebnisse sind valide und ermöglichen es Suchmaschinen-Anbietern wie auch Forschern, künftige Entwicklungen stärker als bisher am tatsächlichen Verhalten der Nutzer auszurichten. Das Buch beschränkt sich allerdings auf die US-amerikanischen Suchmaschinen und deren Nutzer und bezieht nur bei All the Web die europäischen Nutzer ein. Insbesondere die Frage, ob die europäischen oder auch deutschsprachigen Nutzer anders suchen als die amerikanischen, bleibt unbeantwortet. Hier wären weitere Forschungen zu leisten."
    LCSH
    Web usage mining
    RSWK
    World Wide Web / Suchmaschine
    Subject
    World Wide Web / Suchmaschine
    Web usage mining
  12. Jansen, B.J.; Booth, D.L.; Spink, A.: Patterns of query reformulation during Web searching (2009) 0.03
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    Abstract
    Query reformulation is a key user behavior during Web search. Our research goal is to develop predictive models of query reformulation during Web searching. This article reports results from a study in which we automatically classified the query-reformulation patterns for 964,780 Web searching sessions, composed of 1,523,072 queries, to predict the next query reformulation. We employed an n-gram modeling approach to describe the probability of users transitioning from one query-reformulation state to another to predict their next state. We developed first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order models and evaluated each model for accuracy of prediction, coverage of the dataset, and complexity of the possible pattern set. The results show that Reformulation and Assistance account for approximately 45% of all query reformulations; furthermore, the results demonstrate that the first- and second-order models provide the best predictability, between 28 and 40% overall and higher than 70% for some patterns. Implications are that the n-gram approach can be used for improving searching systems and searching assistance.
  13. Jansen, B.J.; Resnick, M.: ¬An examination of searcher's perceptions of nonsponsored and sponsored links during ecommerce Web searching (2006) 0.03
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    Abstract
    In this article, we report results of an investigation into the effect of sponsored links on ecommerce information seeking on the Web. In this research, 56 participants each engaged in six ecommerce Web searching tasks. We extracted these tasks from the transaction log of a Web search engine, so they represent actual ecommerce searching information needs. Using 60 organic and 30 sponsored Web links, the quality of the Web search engine results was controlled by switching nonsponsored and sponsored links on half of the tasks for each participant. This allowed for investigating the bias toward sponsored links while controlling for quality of content. The study also investigated the relationship between searching self-efficacy, searching experience, types of ecommerce information needs, and the order of links on the viewing of sponsored links. Data included 2,453 interactions with links from result pages and 961 utterances evaluating these links. The results of the study indicate that there is a strong preference for nonsponsored links, with searchers viewing these results first more than 82% of the time. Searching self-efficacy and experience does not increase the likelihood of viewing sponsored links, and the order of the result listing does not appear to affect searcher evaluation of sponsored links. The implications for sponsored links as a long-term business model are discussed.
  14. Jansen, B.J.; Pooch , U.: ¬A review of Web searching studies and a framework for future research (2001) 0.03
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    Abstract
    Jansen and Pooch review three major search engine studies and compare them to three traditional search system studies and three OPAC search studies, to determine if user search characteristics differ. The web search engine studies indicate that most searchers use two, two search term queries per session, no boolean operators, and look only at the top ten items returned, while reporting the location of relevant information. In traditional search systems we find seven to 16 queries of six to nine terms, while about ten documents per session were viewed. The OPAC studies indicated two to five queries per session of two or less terms, with Boolean search about 1% and less than 50 documents viewed.
  15. Jansen, B.J.; Spink, A.; Blakely, C.; Koshman, S.: Defining a session on Web search engines (2007) 0.02
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    Abstract
    Detecting query reformulations within a session by a Web searcher is an important area of research for designing more helpful searching systems and targeting content to particular users. Methods explored by other researchers include both qualitative (i.e., the use of human judges to manually analyze query patterns on usually small samples) and nondeterministic algorithms, typically using large amounts of training data to predict query modification during sessions. In this article, we explore three alternative methods for detection of session boundaries. All three methods are computationally straightforward and therefore easily implemented for detection of session changes. We examine 2,465,145 interactions from 534,507 users of Dogpile.com on May 6, 2005. We compare session analysis using (a) Internet Protocol address and cookie; (b) Internet Protocol address, cookie, and a temporal limit on intrasession interactions; and (c) Internet Protocol address, cookie, and query reformulation patterns. Overall, our analysis shows that defining sessions by query reformulation along with Internet Protocol address and cookie provides the best measure, resulting in an 82% increase in the count of sessions. Regardless of the method used, the mean session length was fewer than three queries, and the mean session duration was less than 30 min. Searchers most often modified their query by changing query terms (nearly 23% of all query modifications) rather than adding or deleting terms. Implications are that for measuring searching traffic, unique sessions may be a better indicator than the common metric of unique visitors. This research also sheds light on the more complex aspects of Web searching involving query modifications and may lead to advances in searching tools.
  16. Coughlin, D.M.; Campbell, M.C.; Jansen, B.J.: ¬A web analytics approach for appraising electronic resources in academic libraries (2016) 0.02
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    Abstract
    University libraries provide access to thousands of journals and spend millions of dollars annually on electronic resources. With several commercial entities providing these electronic resources, the result can be silo systems and processes to evaluate cost and usage of these resources, making it difficult to provide meaningful analytics. In this research, we examine a subset of journals from a large research library using a web analytics approach with the goal of developing a framework for the analysis of library subscriptions. This foundational approach is implemented by comparing the impact to the cost, titles, and usage for the subset of journals and by assessing the funding area. Overall, the results highlight the benefit of a web analytics evaluation framework for university libraries and the impact of classifying titles based on the funding area. Furthermore, they show the statistical difference in both use and cost among the various funding areas when ranked by cost, eliminating the outliers of heavily used and highly expensive journals. Future work includes refining this model for a larger scale analysis tying metrics to library organizational objectives and for the creation of an online application to automate this analysis.
  17. Jansen, B.J.; Zhang, M.; Schultz, C.D.: Brand and its effect on user perception of search engine performance (2009) 0.02
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    Abstract
    In this research we investigate the effect of search engine brand on the evaluation of searching performance. Our research is motivated by the large amount of search traffic directed to a handful of Web search engines, even though many have similar interfaces and performance. We conducted a laboratory experiment with 32 participants using a 42 factorial design confounded in four blocks to measure the effect of four search engine brands (Google, MSN, Yahoo!, and a locally developed search engine) while controlling for the quality and presentation of search engine results. We found brand indeed played a role in the searching process. Brand effect varied in different domains. Users seemed to place a high degree of trust in major search engine brands; however, they were more engaged in the searching process when using lesser-known search engines. It appears that branding affects overall Web search at four stages: (a) search engine selection, (b) search engine results page evaluation, (c) individual link evaluation, and (d) evaluation of the landing page. We discuss the implications for search engine marketing and the design of empirical studies measuring search engine performance.
  18. Ortiz-Cordova, A.; Yang, Y.; Jansen, B.J.: External to internal search : associating searching on search engines with searching on sites (2015) 0.02
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    Abstract
    We analyze the transitions from external search, searching on web search engines, to internal search, searching on websites. We categorize 295,571 search episodes composed of a query submitted to web search engines and the subsequent queries submitted to a single website search by the same users. There are a total of 1,136,390 queries from all searches, of which 295,571 are external search queries and 840,819 are internal search queries. We algorithmically classify queries into states and then use n-grams to categorize search patterns. We cluster the searching episodes into major patterns and identify the most commonly occurring, which are: (1) Explorers (43% of all patterns) with a broad external search query and then broad internal search queries, (2) Navigators (15%) with an external search query containing a URL component and then specific internal search queries, and (3) Shifters (15%) with a different, seemingly unrelated, query types when transitioning from external to internal search. The implications of this research are that external search and internal search sessions are part of a single search episode and that online businesses can leverage these search episodes to more effectively target potential customers.
  19. Jansen, B.J.; Booth, D.L.; Smith, B.K.: Using the taxonomy of cognitive learning to model online searching (2009) 0.02
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    Abstract
    In this research, we investigated whether a learning process has unique information searching characteristics. The results of this research show that information searching is a learning process with unique searching characteristics specific to particular learning levels. In a laboratory experiment, we studied the searching characteristics of 72 participants engaged in 426 searching tasks. We classified the searching tasks according to Anderson and Krathwohl's taxonomy of the cognitive learning domain. Research results indicate that applying and analyzing, the middle two of the six categories, generally take the most searching effort in terms of queries per session, topics searched per session, and total time searching. Interestingly, the lowest two learning categories, remembering and understanding, exhibit searching characteristics similar to the highest order learning categories of evaluating and creating. Our results suggest the view of Web searchers having simple information needs may be incorrect. Instead, we discovered that users applied simple searching expressions to support their higher-level information needs. It appears that searchers rely primarily on their internal knowledge for evaluating and creating information needs, using search primarily for fact checking and verification. Overall, results indicate that a learning theory may better describe the information searching process than more commonly used paradigms of decision making or problem solving. The learning style of the searcher does have some moderating effect on exhibited searching characteristics. The implication of this research is that rather than solely addressing a searcher's expressed information need, searching systems can also address the underlying learning need of the user.
  20. Coughlin, D.M.; Jansen, B.J.: Modeling journal bibliometrics to predict downloads and inform purchase decisions at university research libraries (2016) 0.02
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    Abstract
    University libraries provide access to thousands of online journals and other content, spending millions of dollars annually on these electronic resources. Providing access to these online resources is costly, and it is difficult both to analyze the value of this content to the institution and to discern those journals that comparatively provide more value. In this research, we examine 1,510 journals from a large research university library, representing more than 40% of the university's annual subscription cost for electronic resources at the time of the study. We utilize a web analytics approach for the creation of a linear regression model to predict usage among these journals. We categorize metrics into two classes: global (journal focused) and local (institution dependent). Using 275 journals for our training set, our analysis shows that a combination of global and local metrics creates the strongest model for predicting full-text downloads. Our linear regression model has an accuracy of more than 80% in predicting downloads for the 1,235 journals in our test set. The implications of the findings are that university libraries that use local metrics have better insight into the value of a journal and therefore more efficient cost content management.